Minority Report

Van Buren, MO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Carter County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 60°   Low 38°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 5 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°0%
US model (GFS)62°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)60°41°2%
German model (ICON)59°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)61°43°5%
The average60°38°1%

Friday, November 13

High 48°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°24°0%
US model (GFS)46°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°33°0%
German model (ICON)50°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°34°0%
The average48°30°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 51°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°25°1%
US model (GFS)52°24°0%
European model (ECMWF)49°30°0%
German model (ICON)51°22°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°28°0%
The average51°26°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 30°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°28°3%
US model (GFS)54°34°2%
European model (ECMWF)54°31°0%
German model (ICON)56°32°3%
Canadian model (GEM)52°28°5%
The average54°30°3%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.