Vandalia, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Fayette County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 50° Low 34° Rain 22%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 51 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 31° | 10% |
| US model (GFS) | 50° | 34° | 10% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 49° | 37° | 61% |
| German model (ICON) | 51° | 34° | 18% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 50° | 35° | 10% |
| The average | 50° | 34° | 22% |
High 45° Low 31° Rain 2%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 45° | 26° | 10% |
| US model (GFS) | 44° | 30° | 1% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 44° | 36° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 46° | 31° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 44° | 30° | 0% |
| The average | 45° | 31° | 2% |
High 48° Low 26° Rain 0%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 48° | 25° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 48° | 23° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 48° | 30° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 49° | 27° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 48° | 24° | 0% |
| The average | 48° | 26° | 0% |
High 51° Low 27° Rain 0%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 50° | 27° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 53° | 33° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 51° | 29° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 53° | 28° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 51° | 18° | 0% |
| The average | 51° | 27° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.