Minority Report

Vega Baja Municipio, PR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Vega Baja Municipio.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 93°   Low 74°   Rain 46%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 73 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 83% against a group average of 46%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—76°10%
US model (GFS)95°74°81%
European model (ECMWF)89°72°83%
German model (ICON)94°73°45%
Canadian model (GEM)93°74°11%
The average93°74°46%

Friday, November 13

High 93°   Low 78°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service92°76°10%
US model (GFS)94°76°0%
European model (ECMWF)90°79°6%
German model (ICON)93°80°3%
Canadian model (GEM)93°77°5%
The average93°78°5%

Saturday, November 14

High 93°   Low 78°   Rain 23%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 56 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 56% against a group average of 23%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service92°75°30%
US model (GFS)95°77°0%
European model (ECMWF)89°78°56%
German model (ICON)94°81°13%
Canadian model (GEM)93°78°14%
The average93°78°23%

Sunday, November 15

High 91°   Low 75°   Rain 5%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service91°75°5%
US model (GFS)94°74°3%
European model (ECMWF)86°76°10%
German model (ICON)94°77°5%
Canadian model (GEM)92°76°0%
The average91°75°5%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.