Minority Report

Vega, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Oldham County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 71°   Low 41°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—40°0%
US model (GFS)71°40°0%
European model (ECMWF)70°44°0%
German model (ICON)71°42°0%
Canadian model (GEM)71°41°0%
The average71°41°0%

Friday, November 13

High 65°   Low 40°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 17 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 17% against a group average of 5%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°44°17%
US model (GFS)67°40°1%
European model (ECMWF)64°42°0%
German model (ICON)64°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)65°34°6%
The average65°40°5%

Saturday, November 14

High 51°   Low 42°   Rain 79%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 11°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 92% against a group average of 79%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°42°68%
US model (GFS)58°41°78%
European model (ECMWF)48°42°92%
German model (ICON)48°42°85%
Canadian model (GEM)47°41°72%
The average51°42°79%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 40°   Rain 34%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 65 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 69% against a group average of 34%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°38°4%
US model (GFS)49°42°69%
European model (ECMWF)44°40°31%
German model (ICON)45°42°40%
Canadian model (GEM)44°38°24%
The average46°40°34%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.