Minority Report

Vernal, UT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Uintah County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 53°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°0%
US model (GFS)53°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)53°35°0%
German model (ICON)54°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°29°0%
The average53°31°0%

Friday, November 13

High 53°   Low 33°   Rain 24%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 69 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 75% against a group average of 24%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°34°75%
US model (GFS)56°32°6%
European model (ECMWF)54°36°6%
German model (ICON)52°34°15%
Canadian model (GEM)50°28°19%
The average53°33°24%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 36°   Rain 79%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 55% against a group average of 79%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°32°75%
US model (GFS)46°37°71%
European model (ECMWF)51°40°96%
German model (ICON)49°41°55%
Canadian model (GEM)50°33°97%
The average49°36°79%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 34°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 14% against a group average of 4%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°31°0%
US model (GFS)48°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°36°1%
German model (ICON)50°37°3%
Canadian model (GEM)48°28°14%
The average49°34°4%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.