Minority Report

Virginia City, NV — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Storey County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 56°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°1%
US model (GFS)57°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)57°35°0%
German model (ICON)58°23°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°22°0%
The average56°32°0%

Friday, November 13

High 49°   Low 30°   Rain 82%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 52 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 48% against a group average of 82%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°32°87%
US model (GFS)51°30°80%
European model (ECMWF)46°33°100%
German model (ICON)50°29°95%
Canadian model (GEM)49°24°48%
The average49°30°82%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 28°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 15% against a group average of 3%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°33°0%
US model (GFS)43°30°2%
European model (ECMWF)45°29°15%
German model (ICON)47°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°23°0%
The average45°28°3%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 30°   Rain 34%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 65 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 73% against a group average of 34%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°34°73%
US model (GFS)50°34°37%
European model (ECMWF)50°33°30%
German model (ICON)53°24°23%
Canadian model (GEM)53°24°8%
The average51°30°34%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.