Minority Report

Waco, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of McLennan County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 77°   Low 51°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—51°0%
US model (GFS)79°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)76°54°0%
German model (ICON)77°50°0%
Canadian model (GEM)77°50°0%
The average77°51°0%

Friday, November 13

High 71°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service70°49°0%
US model (GFS)72°51°0%
European model (ECMWF)70°54°0%
German model (ICON)70°47°0%
Canadian model (GEM)73°46°0%
The average71°49°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 65°   Low 49°   Rain 46%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 9°, rain spread 72 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 5% against a group average of 46%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°50°51%
US model (GFS)68°46°24%
European model (ECMWF)65°52°77%
German model (ICON)60°48°72%
Canadian model (GEM)70°51°5%
The average65°49°46%

Sunday, November 15

High 57°   Low 48°   Rain 87%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 65% against a group average of 87%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°47°90%
US model (GFS)61°50°65%
European model (ECMWF)55°49°97%
German model (ICON)54°48°90%
Canadian model (GEM)60°49°91%
The average57°48°87%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.