Minority Report

Wampsville, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Madison County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 45°   Low 33°   Rain 99%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 4 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—26°96%
US model (GFS)44°35°100%
European model (ECMWF)46°35°100%
German model (ICON)45°36°100%
Canadian model (GEM)45°34°100%
The average45°33°99%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 31°   Rain 91%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 31 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 69% against a group average of 91%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°25°69%
US model (GFS)40°33°90%
European model (ECMWF)40°33°100%
German model (ICON)40°35°95%
Canadian model (GEM)39°31°100%
The average40°31°91%

Saturday, November 14

High 40°   Low 33°   Rain 75%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 39 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 98% against a group average of 75%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°28°64%
US model (GFS)39°32°63%
European model (ECMWF)40°34°98%
German model (ICON)41°36°59%
Canadian model (GEM)38°33°91%
The average40°33°75%

Sunday, November 15

High 41°   Low 33°   Rain 42%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 61 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 75% against a group average of 42%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°29°42%
US model (GFS)38°33°53%
European model (ECMWF)41°35°75%
German model (ICON)42°38°28%
Canadian model (GEM)41°32°14%
The average41°33°42%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.