Warm Springs, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Bath County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 53° Low 39° Rain 52%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 73 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 36° | 13% |
| US model (GFS) | 51° | 38° | 19% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 54° | 40° | 86% |
| German model (ICON) | 54° | 41° | 78% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 52° | 42° | 62% |
| The average | 53° | 39° | 52% |
High 44° Low 32° Rain 6%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 44° | 31° | 10% |
| US model (GFS) | 41° | 30° | 6% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 46° | 33° | 4% |
| German model (ICON) | 43° | 32° | 3% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 44° | 34° | 6% |
| The average | 44° | 32° | 6% |
High 41° Low 30° Rain 1%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 40° | 30° | 2% |
| US model (GFS) | 40° | 29° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 42° | 30° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 40° | 31° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 41° | 28° | 0% |
| The average | 41° | 30° | 1% |
High 44° Low 30° Rain 0%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 43° | 30° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 45° | 31° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 43° | 30° | 2% |
| German model (ICON) | 45° | 31° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 45° | 28° | 0% |
| The average | 44° | 30° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.