Warrenton, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Fauquier County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 64° Low 43° Rain 46%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 90 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 41° | 6% |
| US model (GFS) | 64° | 42° | 23% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 64° | 45° | 96% |
| German model (ICON) | 63° | 47° | 80% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 65° | 40° | 24% |
| The average | 64° | 43° | 46% |
High 49° Low 36° Rain 8%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 12 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 49° | 33° | 8% |
| US model (GFS) | 46° | 33° | 3% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 50° | 40° | 8% |
| German model (ICON) | 48° | 37° | 15% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 49° | 37° | 5% |
| The average | 49° | 36° | 8% |
High 49° Low 35° Rain 2%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 50° | 35° | 2% |
| US model (GFS) | 48° | 30° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 48° | 37° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 49° | 34° | 3% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 48° | 39° | 2% |
| The average | 49° | 35° | 2% |
High 51° Low 38° Rain 0%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 53° | 35° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 49° | 35° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 50° | 41° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 51° | 41° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 50° | 37° | 0% |
| The average | 51° | 38° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.