Minority Report

Warsaw, IN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Kosciusko County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 38°   Rain 62%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 44 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 86% against a group average of 62%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°49%
US model (GFS)47°40°42%
European model (ECMWF)49°41°86%
Canadian model (GEM)48°40°71%
The average48°38°62%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 31°   Rain 27%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 30 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 43% against a group average of 27%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°27°13%
US model (GFS)41°31°19%
European model (ECMWF)43°33°43%
Canadian model (GEM)41°33°33%
The average42°31°27%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 30°   Rain 16%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 23 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 27% against a group average of 16%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°34°27%
US model (GFS)40°31°12%
European model (ECMWF)45°29°4%
Canadian model (GEM)42°27°19%
The average43°30°16%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 34°   Rain 13%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 24 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 26% against a group average of 13%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°31°26%
US model (GFS)45°36°12%
European model (ECMWF)46°40°2%
Canadian model (GEM)45°28°11%
The average46°34°13%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.