Minority Report

Warsaw, KY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Gallatin County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 41°   Rain 49%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 63 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 84% against a group average of 49%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—40°25%
US model (GFS)55°40°21%
European model (ECMWF)54°42°84%
German model (ICON)55°41°50%
Canadian model (GEM)54°42°63%
The average55°41°49%

Friday, November 13

High 46°   Low 35°   Rain 46%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 57 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 16% against a group average of 46%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°29°38%
US model (GFS)46°32°16%
European model (ECMWF)47°38°73%
German model (ICON)47°35°48%
Canadian model (GEM)44°39°56%
The average46°35°46%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°30°0%
US model (GFS)48°29°2%
European model (ECMWF)47°32°0%
German model (ICON)46°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°30°0%
The average47°30°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 50°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°30°0%
US model (GFS)50°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°37°0%
German model (ICON)54°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°28°0%
The average50°34°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.