Minority Report

Warsaw, MO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Benton County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 53°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°0%
US model (GFS)53°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°41°0%
German model (ICON)51°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°40°0%
The average53°37°0%

Friday, November 13

High 45°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°26°0%
US model (GFS)43°24°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°36°0%
German model (ICON)46°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°33°0%
The average45°30°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°30°1%
US model (GFS)50°22°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°34°0%
German model (ICON)51°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°30°0%
The average49°29°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 53°   Low 33°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°32°3%
US model (GFS)54°33°2%
European model (ECMWF)52°35°0%
German model (ICON)56°31°3%
Canadian model (GEM)52°34°5%
The average53°33°3%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.