Minority Report

Warsaw, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Richmond County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 69°   Low 46°   Rain 25%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 56 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 63% against a group average of 25%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°7%
US model (GFS)70°48°16%
German model (ICON)68°49°63%
Canadian model (GEM)69°46°14%
The average69°46°25%

Friday, November 13

High 51°   Low 36°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 11 points, 4 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°32°10%
US model (GFS)49°36°2%
German model (ICON)50°38°13%
Canadian model (GEM)52°39°11%
The average51°36°9%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 33°   Rain 4%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 10 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°33°0%
US model (GFS)51°32°2%
German model (ICON)50°33°5%
Canadian model (GEM)50°33°10%
The average50°33°4%

Sunday, November 15

High 53°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°32°0%
US model (GFS)52°35°0%
German model (ICON)54°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°36°0%
The average53°34°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.