Minority Report

Waynesville, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Haywood County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 54°   Low 38°   Rain 69%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 70 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 30% against a group average of 69%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°30%
US model (GFS)54°40°63%
European model (ECMWF)52°40°84%
German model (ICON)55°41°68%
Canadian model (GEM)55°39°100%
The average54°38°69%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 32°   Rain 53%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 65 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 19% against a group average of 53%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°27°59%
US model (GFS)41°33°19%
European model (ECMWF)40°35°47%
German model (ICON)41°34°58%
Canadian model (GEM)42°31°84%
The average41°32°53%

Saturday, November 14

High 40°   Low 25°   Rain 30%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 59 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 62% against a group average of 30%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°22°3%
US model (GFS)42°28°8%
European model (ECMWF)37°28°50%
German model (ICON)40°28°28%
Canadian model (GEM)40°20°62%
The average40°25°30%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°26°1%
US model (GFS)49°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°26°0%
German model (ICON)49°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°19°0%
The average48°25°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.