Welch, WV — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of McDowell County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 52° Low 39° Rain 87%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 44 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 33° | 56% |
| US model (GFS) | 52° | 41° | 80% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 53° | 42° | 100% |
| German model (ICON) | 53° | 43° | 100% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 52° | 38° | 100% |
| The average | 52° | 39° | 87% |
High 44° Low 35° Rain 72%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 59 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 44° | 28° | 53% |
| US model (GFS) | 44° | 37° | 40% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 47° | 37° | 99% |
| German model (ICON) | 43° | 37° | 70% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 44° | 35° | 96% |
| The average | 44° | 35° | 72% |
High 40° Low 31° Rain 48%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 68 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 40° | 27° | 28% |
| US model (GFS) | 40° | 31° | 18% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 42° | 31° | 81% |
| German model (ICON) | 41° | 34° | 28% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 39° | 31° | 86% |
| The average | 40° | 31° | 48% |
High 44° Low 32° Rain 4%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 44° | 25° | 2% |
| US model (GFS) | 43° | 33° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 45° | 30° | 10% |
| German model (ICON) | 47° | 36° | 3% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 43° | 35° | 5% |
| The average | 44° | 32° | 4% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.