Minority Report

Western Connecticut Planning Region, CT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Western Connecticut Planning Region.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 54°   Low 43°   Rain 94%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 13 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—39°98%
US model (GFS)55°43°87%
European model (ECMWF)54°45°100%
German model (ICON)51°45°90%
Canadian model (GEM)56°45°97%
The average54°43°94%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 34°   Rain 93%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 31 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 69% against a group average of 93%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°30°94%
US model (GFS)43°35°69%
European model (ECMWF)45°35°100%
German model (ICON)45°33°100%
Canadian model (GEM)45°35°100%
The average44°34°93%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 32°   Rain 8%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 23 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 23% against a group average of 8%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°31°0%
US model (GFS)41°32°7%
European model (ECMWF)44°31°5%
German model (ICON)44°33°23%
Canadian model (GEM)43°33°5%
The average44°32°8%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 33°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°32°0%
US model (GFS)44°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°36°2%
German model (ICON)46°35°3%
Canadian model (GEM)45°33°0%
The average46°33°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.