Minority Report

Williamsport, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lycoming County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 50°   Low 38°   Rain 97%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 12 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°88%
US model (GFS)49°40°98%
European model (ECMWF)51°38°100%
German model (ICON)50°40°100%
Canadian model (GEM)52°41°100%
The average50°38°97%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 35°   Rain 79%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 37 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 57% against a group average of 79%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°31°64%
US model (GFS)40°35°57%
European model (ECMWF)40°36°94%
German model (ICON)40°36°93%
Canadian model (GEM)41°36°87%
The average40°35°79%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 34°   Rain 6%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 16% against a group average of 6%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°32°2%
US model (GFS)43°32°3%
European model (ECMWF)46°35°2%
German model (ICON)44°35°5%
Canadian model (GEM)43°34°16%
The average44°34°6%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 35°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°31°2%
US model (GFS)43°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°37°6%
German model (ICON)44°38°3%
Canadian model (GEM)44°36°0%
The average45°35°2%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.