Minority Report

Willows, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Glenn County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 72°   Low 46°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 26 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 26% against a group average of 6%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—49°26%
US model (GFS)73°44°3%
European model (ECMWF)71°50°0%
German model (ICON)72°47°0%
Canadian model (GEM)72°41°0%
The average72°46°6%

Friday, November 13

High 61°   Low 46°   Rain 97%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°43°97%
US model (GFS)60°49°90%
European model (ECMWF)62°47°100%
German model (ICON)61°48°100%
Canadian model (GEM)62°42°100%
The average61°46°97%

Saturday, November 14

High 61°   Low 43°   Rain 12%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 53 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 53% against a group average of 12%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°44°53%
US model (GFS)61°44°3%
European model (ECMWF)61°44°0%
German model (ICON)62°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)61°38°5%
The average61°43°12%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 48°   Rain 95%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°43°89%
US model (GFS)55°50°93%
European model (ECMWF)56°49°94%
German model (ICON)54°48°100%
Canadian model (GEM)56°48°100%
The average56°48°95%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.