Minority Report

Winchester, KY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Clark County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 54°   Low 41°   Rain 77%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 70 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 30% against a group average of 77%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—38°30%
US model (GFS)53°41°75%
European model (ECMWF)54°43°100%
German model (ICON)55°43°90%
Canadian model (GEM)55°41°91%
The average54°41°77%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 34°   Rain 64%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 55 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 35% against a group average of 64%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°30°56%
US model (GFS)44°32°35%
European model (ECMWF)45°35°90%
German model (ICON)45°37°70%
Canadian model (GEM)43°37°67%
The average44°34°64%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 30°   Rain 4%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°28°0%
US model (GFS)46°31°2%
European model (ECMWF)46°31°0%
German model (ICON)44°32°10%
Canadian model (GEM)45°28°10%
The average45°30°4%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°28°0%
US model (GFS)48°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°39°2%
German model (ICON)51°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°21°0%
The average48°32°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.