Minority Report

Winfield, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Cowley County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 62°   Low 38°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°1%
US model (GFS)64°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)61°42°0%
German model (ICON)61°39°0%
Canadian model (GEM)64°37°0%
The average62°38°0%

Friday, November 13

High 52°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°31°0%
US model (GFS)51°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°35°0%
German model (ICON)52°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°30°0%
The average52°32°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 33°   Rain 14%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 19 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 14%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°38°25%
US model (GFS)52°31°6%
European model (ECMWF)52°34°9%
German model (ICON)54°32°10%
Canadian model (GEM)53°29°21%
The average53°33°14%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 39°   Rain 46%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 40 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 76% against a group average of 46%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°34°44%
US model (GFS)47°40°40%
European model (ECMWF)47°41°36%
German model (ICON)46°40°36%
Canadian model (GEM)43°38°76%
The average46°39°46%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.