Minority Report

Winner, SD — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Tripp County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 41°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—25°0%
US model (GFS)40°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)41°30°0%
German model (ICON)41°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°28°0%
The average41°28°0%

Friday, November 13

High 47°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 9°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°29°0%
US model (GFS)41°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°29°0%
German model (ICON)49°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°26°0%
The average47°28°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°34°2%
US model (GFS)52°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°34°0%
German model (ICON)49°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°32°0%
The average49°33°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 39°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°38°0%
US model (GFS)56°40°1%
European model (ECMWF)57°39°0%
German model (ICON)58°39°3%
Canadian model (GEM)56°37°0%
The average56°39°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.