Minority Report

Woodstock, VT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Windsor County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 40°   Low 35°   Rain 93%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 18 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 82% against a group average of 93%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°85%
US model (GFS)40°37°82%
European model (ECMWF)39°36°100%
German model (ICON)41°34°100%
Canadian model (GEM)42°36°99%
The average40°35°93%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 30°   Rain 72%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 59 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 41% against a group average of 72%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°25°41%
US model (GFS)40°32°52%
European model (ECMWF)42°32°100%
German model (ICON)36°34°75%
Canadian model (GEM)39°30°90%
The average40°30°72%

Saturday, November 14

High 41°   Low 31°   Rain 14%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 18 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 14%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°27°13%
US model (GFS)41°31°17%
European model (ECMWF)42°30°24%
German model (ICON)39°33°8%
Canadian model (GEM)40°33°6%
The average41°31°14%

Sunday, November 15

High 41°   Low 33°   Rain 8%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°28°13%
US model (GFS)40°32°9%
European model (ECMWF)42°34°6%
German model (ICON)40°35°5%
Canadian model (GEM)41°35°6%
The average41°33°8%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.