Minority Report

Xenia, OH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Greene County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 52°   Low 41°   Rain 83%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 0°, rain spread 27 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 69% against a group average of 83%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—38°84%
US model (GFS)52°42°69%
European model (ECMWF)52°41°96%
German model (ICON)52°42°75%
Canadian model (GEM)52°41°90%
The average52°41°83%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 34°   Rain 60%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 69 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 98% against a group average of 60%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°30°29%
US model (GFS)42°34°47%
European model (ECMWF)43°38°98%
German model (ICON)43°35°48%
Canadian model (GEM)41°35°76%
The average42°34°60%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 30°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°35°1%
US model (GFS)43°31°2%
European model (ECMWF)44°29°1%
German model (ICON)44°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°27°5%
The average44°30°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°33°0%
US model (GFS)46°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)44°35°2%
German model (ICON)48°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°30°0%
The average46°34°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.