Minority Report

Yellville, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Marion County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 61° Low 38° Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source

Source	High	Low	Rain
National Weather Service	—	30°	0%
US model (GFS)	63°	40°	0%
European model (ECMWF)	61°	39°	0%
German model (ICON)	61°	40°	0%
Canadian model (GEM)	61°	42°	0%
The average	61°	38°	0%

Friday, November 13

High 51° Low 32° Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source

Source	High	Low	Rain
National Weather Service	52°	26°	0%
US model (GFS)	49°	33°	0%
European model (ECMWF)	50°	35°	0%
German model (ICON)	52°	33°	0%
Canadian model (GEM)	51°	34°	0%
The average	51°	32°	0%

Saturday, November 14

High 51° Low 29° Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source

Source	High	Low	Rain
National Weather Service	52°	30°	2%
US model (GFS)	52°	26°	0%
European model (ECMWF)	50°	31°	0%
German model (ICON)	52°	29°	0%
Canadian model (GEM)	50°	26°	0%
The average	51°	29°	0%

Sunday, November 15

High 54° Low 33° Rain 14%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source

Source	High	Low	Rain
National Weather Service	53°	33°	14%
US model (GFS)	56°	34°	14%
European model (ECMWF)	54°	34°	11%
German model (ICON)	56°	32°	12%
Canadian model (GEM)	52°	30°	18%
The average	54°	33°	14%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.