Minority Report

Yerington, NV — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lyon County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 63°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°1%
US model (GFS)63°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)65°41°0%
German model (ICON)61°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)63°24°0%
The average63°31°0%

Friday, November 13

High 60°   Low 30°   Rain 73%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 73%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°27°67%
US model (GFS)63°34°71%
European model (ECMWF)57°39°100%
German model (ICON)59°28°55%
Canadian model (GEM)61°22°71%
The average60°30°73%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 29°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 16 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 16% against a group average of 4%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°28°0%
US model (GFS)50°33°1%
European model (ECMWF)52°33°16%
German model (ICON)52°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°22°1%
The average53°29°4%

Sunday, November 15

High 58°   Low 33°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 54 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 55% against a group average of 17%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°30°55%
US model (GFS)56°43°8%
European model (ECMWF)59°38°1%
German model (ICON)57°29°21%
Canadian model (GEM)60°25°1%
The average58°33°17%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.