Minority Report

York, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of York County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 57°   Low 42°   Rain 80%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 0°, rain spread 51 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 49% against a group average of 80%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—38°49%
US model (GFS)57°43°74%
European model (ECMWF)57°45°100%
German model (ICON)57°43°98%
Canadian model (GEM)57°42°80%
The average57°42°80%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 36°   Rain 74%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 60 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 39% against a group average of 74%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°33°58%
US model (GFS)43°35°39%
European model (ECMWF)45°37°99%
German model (ICON)43°36°80%
Canadian model (GEM)42°38°95%
The average43°36°74%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 34°   Rain 13%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 32% against a group average of 13%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°34°0%
US model (GFS)45°32°4%
European model (ECMWF)46°36°6%
German model (ICON)46°34°25%
Canadian model (GEM)44°36°32%
The average46°34°13%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 36°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°33°0%
US model (GFS)47°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°38°0%
German model (ICON)48°38°1%
Canadian model (GEM)47°33°0%
The average48°36°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.