Minority Report

Youngstown, OH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Mahoning County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 40°   Rain 80%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 66 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 34% against a group average of 80%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—35°34%
US model (GFS)49°38°83%
European model (ECMWF)48°42°100%
German model (ICON)47°40°93%
Canadian model (GEM)49°42°91%
The average48°40°80%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 34°   Rain 25%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 35 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 47% against a group average of 25%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°32°47%
US model (GFS)41°33°24%
European model (ECMWF)43°35°12%
German model (ICON)43°35°25%
Canadian model (GEM)43°37°17%
The average42°34°25%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 34°   Rain 75%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 90% against a group average of 75%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°33°69%
US model (GFS)42°33°81%
European model (ECMWF)41°35°90%
German model (ICON)42°35°63%
Canadian model (GEM)45°35°71%
The average43°34°75%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 37°   Rain 48%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 35% against a group average of 48%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°32°46%
US model (GFS)45°40°35%
European model (ECMWF)44°40°55%
German model (ICON)45°40°43%
Canadian model (GEM)45°32°59%
The average45°37°48%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.