Minority Report

Yuba City, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Sutter County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 74°   Low 45°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 21 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 23% against a group average of 9%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service73°52°23%
US model (GFS)76°42°4%
European model (ECMWF)74°46°6%
German model (ICON)73°45°8%
Canadian model (GEM)75°40°2%
The average74°45°9%

Friday, November 13

High 60°   Low 50°   Rain 100%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°47°98%
US model (GFS)59°51°100%
European model (ECMWF)59°52°100%
German model (ICON)60°51°100%
Canadian model (GEM)60°48°100%
The average60°50°100%

Saturday, November 14

High 63°   Low 48°   Rain 8%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 19 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 19% against a group average of 8%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°46°9%
US model (GFS)62°50°19%
European model (ECMWF)62°48°0%
German model (ICON)63°50°5%
Canadian model (GEM)63°46°6%
The average63°48°8%

Sunday, November 15

High 61°   Low 49°   Rain 93%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°46°93%
US model (GFS)64°51°92%
European model (ECMWF)61°51°90%
German model (ICON)56°52°100%
Canadian model (GEM)64°46°90%
The average61°49°93%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.